Sheriff Tiraspol vs Aluminij

Model view

Sheriff Tiraspol

33%

Draw

33%

Aluminij

33%

Model vs market

How our model probabilities compare to the bookmaker implied probabilities. Not a recommendation to bet.

Outcome	Model	Market	View
Sheriff Tiraspol	33%	70%	Large model difference — check assumptions carefully
=Draw	33%	19%	Large model difference — check assumptions carefully
Aluminij	33%	11%	Large model difference — check assumptions carefully

1. 1Sheriff TiraspolFavourite33%
2. 2=Draw33%
3. 3Aluminij33%

Tie threshold rule

If the model's top two outcomes are within 5 percentage points of each other, we treat the model as tied and consult bookmaker implied probabilities to break the tie. Current gap between top two: 0.0 pts — tie.

Why this favourite

Model's top two were within 5 points (a tie). We blended model and bookmaker implied probabilities 50/50, and the market broke the tie in favour of Sheriff Tiraspol.

Informational only — not betting advice.