Hegelmann Litauen vs Paide

Model view

Hegelmann Litauen

33%

Draw

33%

Paide

33%

Model vs market

How our model probabilities compare to the bookmaker implied probabilities. Not a recommendation to bet.

Outcome	Model	Market	View
Hegelmann Litauen	33%	36%	No clear edge
=Draw	33%	28%	Small model difference
Paide	33%	36%	Small model difference

1. 1Hegelmann Litauen33%
2. 2=Draw33%
3. 3Paide33%

Tie threshold rule

If the model's top two outcomes are within 5 percentage points of each other, we treat the model as tied and consult bookmaker implied probabilities to break the tie. Current gap between top two: 0.0 pts — tie.

Why this favourite

Model's top two were within 5 points (a tie). We blended model and bookmaker implied probabilities 50/50, and the market broke the tie in favour of Paide.

Informational only — not betting advice.